Deneysel ve Davranışsal İktisada Giriş 3; Tahmin Oyunları İçin Bir Literatür Taraması

Uzun zamandır üzerinde çalıştığım makalemi sonunda bitirebildim. Şu anda değerlendirme aşamasında olduğu için tamamını buraya koyamıyorum ancak sunumumdan sonra sizlerle de paylaşarak görüşlerinizi almak isterim. Şu aşamada sadece makalenin giriş kısmını verip konu ile ilgili literatürü sizlerle paylaşacağım.

“How big is the smallest fish in the pond?
You catch one hundred fishes, all of which are
greater than six inches. Does this evidence
support the hypothesis that no fish in the pond
is much less than six inches long?
Not if your net can’t catch smaller fish.

Knowledge about limitations of your data collection
process affects what inferences you can draw from the data.”
Nick Bostrom

Almost all undergraduate students have some difficulties to understand the principles of game theory on the first hand and even if they understand there is always a big ‘question mark’ whether human decisions and interactions occur in the same way game theory predicts. There is no sharp answer to this question simply saying ‘no’ or ‘yes’. But many researchers showed that human decisions in a strategic manner have been effected by many variables which also lead them to give decisions closer to the theoretical predictions of game theory.

Experimental economics is one of the well established way to test the game theoretical predictions with human subjects.

Aim of this paper is to analyse the guessing games, also the well known name p-beauty contest games, by the results of experimental studies.

First chapter will give a theoretical approach to the guessing game and also will give the game theoretical solution of the well known “basic” guessing game as an example.
Second chapter will focus on the experimental studies with their contributions and critiques to the theory.
Third and the last chapter will be a discussion chapter mainly for the next generation experiments and for new ideas which can improve the structure and lead other researchers to think further on it.


Bu işe birkaç makale ile başlamışken; hem konunun hoşuma gitmesi ve hem de 3. bölüm için düşündüğüm fikirlerin hayata geçirilip geçirilmediği konusunda emin olmak için literatürün tamamına hakim olmam gerektiğine karar verdim ve karşıma aşağıdaki liste çıktı. Bu listeye, konuyla doğrudan ilişkili olmadığı için Costa Gomes’in çalışması eklenmemiştir. Yine Morone’nin aynı seriden 17 numaralı çalışma metni de benzer gerekçelerle dışarıda tutulmuştur.

Tahmin Oyunları – Makale ve Çalışma Metinleri dahil bir liste;

Camerer, Colin F., Behavioral Game Theory, Princeton University Press, 2003

Chou, Eileen, McConnell, Margaret, Nagel, Rosemarie and Plott, Charles R., “The Control of Game Form Recognition in Experiment: Understanding Dominant Strategy Failures in a Simple Two Person ’Guessing’ Game”, Cal-Tech Social Science Working Papers, August 2007

Duffy, John and Nagel, Rosemarie, “On the robustness of behaviour in experimental ‘beauty contest’ games”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 107, November 1997

Grosskopf, Brit and Nagel, Rosemarie, “The Two-Person Beauty Contest”, Games and Economic Behavior, forthcoming

Guth, Werner, Kocher, Martin and Sutte, Matthias, “Experimental ‘beauty contests’ with homogeneous and heterogeneous players and with interior and boundary equilibria”, Economics Letters, Vol. 74, 2002

Ho, Teck, Camerer, Colin and Keith, Weigelt, “Iterated Dominance and Iterated Best Response in Experimental ‘P-Beauty-contests’.” American Economic Review, Vol. 88,1998

Kachelmeier, J.Steven and Shehata, Mohamed, “Culture and Competition: A Laboratory Market Comparison Between China and the West”,Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization, Vol. 19, 1992

Kocher, Martin G. and Sutter, Matthias, “Time is money—Time pressure, incentives,and the quality of decision-making”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 61, 2006

Kocher, Martin, Strauß, Sabine and Sutter, Matthias, “Individual or team decision-making—Causes and consequences of self-selection”, Games and Economic Behavior, Vol. 56, 2006

Kocher, Martin, Sutter, Matthias and Wakolbinger, Florian, “The impact of naive advice and observational learning in beauty-contest games”, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, January 24, 2007

Kovac, Eugen, Ortmann, Andreas and Vojtek, Martin, “Comparing Guessing Games with Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Players: Experimental Results and a CH Explanation”, Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences Working Paper, March 2007

Morone, Andrea and Morone, Piergiuseppe, “Guessing Games and People Behaviours: What Can We Learn?” , S.E.R.I.E.S. Working Paper No:15, 2006

Moulin, H., Game Theory For Social Sciences. New York Press, New York, 1986

Nagel, Rosemarie, “Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study”, American Economic Review, Vol.85, 1995

Nagel, R., “A survey on experimental beauty contest games: bounded rationality and learning”. In: Budescu, D., Erev, I.,Zwick, R. (Eds.), Games and human behavior: Essays in honor of Amnon Rapoport. Lawrence Erlbaum, Hillsdale NJ, 1999

Nagel, Rosemarie, Bosch-Domènech, Antoni, Satorra Albert and García-Montalvo, Jose, “One, Two, (Three), Infinity: Newspaper and Lab Beauty-Contest Experiments”, Working paper, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, 2001

Ohtsubo, Yohsuke and Rapoport, Amnon,”Depth of reasoning in strategic form games”, The Journal of Socio-Economics, Vol. 35, 2006

Sbriglia, Patrizia, “Revealing the Depth of Reasoning in p-Beauty Contest Games”, December 2004. Available at SSRN:

Slonim, R. L., “Competing Against Experienced and Inexperienced Players”, Experimental Economics, Vol. 8, 2005

Stahl, Dale O., “Boundedly Rational Rule Learning in a Guessing Game”, Games and Eonomic Behaviour, Vol. 16, 1996

Sutter, Matthias, “Are Four Heads Better than Two? An Experimental Beauty -Contest Game with Teams of Different Size”, Economics Letters, Vol. 88, 2005

Tyran, Jean-Robert, Unpublished Lecure Notes, MA Course – Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Fall 2006.

Weber, Roberto A.,”Learning with no feedback in a competitive guessing game”, Games and Economic Behavior, Vol. 44, 2003



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