Deneysel ve Davranışsal İktisada Giriş 2; Tahmin Oyunu
Söz verdiğimiz gibi yazımızın ikinci kısmında tahmin oyunundan bahsedeceğiz. Literatürdeki adı “guessing game” ya da “p-beauty contest game” olarak geçen bu oyun adını Keynes’in Genel Teori kitabındaki şu benzetmesinden almaktadır;
… Yazının Devamını Oku“…professional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole; so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view. It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest.
